2020 was never going to bring us a summer like any other, but if there was one thing that could’ve transported us momentarily from this COVID-induced hellscape, it would’ve been blockbuster season. For the big, glossy movie-starved consumer tired of watching release dates shrink into the winter months, Disney seems to have found a solution - albeit a radical one - that brings their much-hyped summer release Mulan straight into the living room for the ramped-up rental price of $29.99 (about £22.00).
Great news for film-loving families and those gagging for a shiny new big studio release, even better news for Disney who are currently reeling from a $3.5 billion quarterly loss thanks to COVID-19. But what does this mean for blockbuster consumption moving forward, and if the release is a success, will there even be any movie theatres to come back to?
A few facts first before we begin pre-mourning the death of the big screen experience forever. For one, Disney’s CEO Bob Chapek was adamant that this is a one-off release strategy rather than a new windowing model for the studio when announcing the news this week. Also, it hasn't been confirmed exactly which countries will see a Disney+ release and which will get it theatrically. Disney have said that the US, Canada, New Zealand, Australia and other Western European countries will see the film land on the streaming service, while territories that don't have Disney+, such as China, will get the film theatrically, meaning that the big screen experience isn’t lost to all. Whether, with cinemas now opening here in the UK, we'll see the film arrive theatrically, on Disney+ or both together, has yet to be confirmed.
If all pays off this could prove a smart move for Disney, who this week proudly announced that subscriptions to its streaming service have stretched to 60.5 million. If just 10% of those subscribers rent Mulan when it’s launched on Labour Day weekend (4th September), it will have earned $181 million - that’s more than its projected opening weekend sales at the cinema (somewhere between $80 - 100 million), and makes a fair stab at breaking even on its $200 million budget.
With positive early reviews and a hefty marketing campaign already under its wing, these figures aren’t unimaginable. It also means that Disney keeps all of the profit, unlike the recent Universal and AMC deal that permits the theatre chain exclusive screening rights to Universal and Focus Feature titles for 17 days.
Great news for Disney, however, means potentially devastating news for theatre chains and us, the moviegoing public. Disney has already put a dent in American’s cinema profits by moving Hamilton to PVOD, and now the only family-friendly blockbuster of the summer has also been snatched from their screens (unless you fancy taking your toddler to see the 12A-rated Tenet). It’s a crushing blow to an industry that has already lost billions of dollars, and if the Mulan experiment proves a success, could mean that more upcoming Disney titles take the streaming route in spite of Chapek’s assurance that this is just a one off. Marvel fans are already bristling at the chance of Black Widow moving to the platform ahead of its November release and with good reason — would you really want your first experience of the latest MCU instalment to be experienced between episodes of Gogglebox on the sofa in your front room?
Some moviegoing purists have already challenged Disney’s decision, with a recent Twitter poll posted by Variety confirming that 85% of nearly 94,000 voters wouldn’t pay the new rental price for Mulan. The counter-argument is that the price (which allows you to watch the film for the length of your subscription, not just for a one-time viewing) is cheaper than taking the whole family to the cinema out in the real world and grants instant access to a movie that people have been looking forward to since its original release in March.
For many, treading across that funky cinema reception carpet, smelling the popcorn butter and settling in to watch a big blockbuster on a big screen is still worth the increasingly lengthy wait. For others, front room premieres could be a temporary, family-friendly escape from the grim reality we’re all now living in. Let’s hope, however, that this little experiment doesn’t become the norm and lead to a migration of blockbusters away from cinemas in the long term. A future without big screen event cinema would, I think we can all agree, be a very sad one indeed.